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Tuesday, December 07, 2004

Charlie Cook looks at the House

Here's an interesting piece from Charlie Cook, my favorite political analyst:

With this past Saturday's conclusion of two House runoff elections in Louisiana, the 2004 campaign is officially over, with Republicans now having picked up a net gain of three seats in the House for a 232-203 majority, counting independent Rep. Bernard Sanders of Vermont as a Democrat.

Before the Nov. 2 general election, the expectations were that there would be little change in the House, that either side might pick up one to three seats, and that Republicans were seen as more likely to gain than lose seats. The lack of competitive races in the House limited the ability of either party to score significant gains in the absence of some kind of tidal wave movement.

The National Republican Congressional Committee was successful in raising and spending more money than its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The most recent FEC filing showed that the NRCC outraised the DCCC for the cycle by $175 million to $91 million. According to the Campaign Finance Institute, the NRCC spent $48.2 million to $34.2 million for the DCCC in the period between Sept. 1 and Oct. 28.

This spending gap most certainly helped Republican Rep.-elect Dave Reichert prevail over Democrat Dave Ross in the pricey Seattle market in Washington's 8th District. Despite the influence of 527 groups in the presidential election, there was very little outside money spent in House races. A notable exception was the League of Conservation Voters, which spent heavily in the open Colorado 3rd District race, helping Democratic Rep.-elect John Salazar win the seat.
There's more, but you need to have the free subscription to view the rest. To sign up for Cook's Off to the Races column, click here.
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