Although President Bush appeared to breeze through a number of his most major first term initiatives--including massive tax cuts, the Medicare prescription benefit and others--all signs indicate his second term agenda might not be as easily achieved. The Washington Post's team of Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Jonathan Weisman deliver a front page article in Wednesday's paper entitled "Bush Allies May Defect Over Fiscal Proposals" in which they lead with this:

The AARP bulletined its 35 million members last week that President Bush's plan to make personal investment accounts part of Social Security was the "wrong direction" and would "make the problem worse." The National Retail Federation has cautioned lawmakers that a national sales tax would hurt the economy. And health lobbyists have begged the White House to retain tax breaks for health insurance.

As the White House opens a two-day conference today to promote its second-term fiscal priorities, powerful interest groups that once supported Bush are either actively working to undercut him or are wary of his proposals. The result, experts say, is that the president will likely have a hard time passing his ambitious plans, which include cracking down on medical malpractice lawsuits and overhauling both the federal tax code and Social Security.

With groups like the AARP, the NAACP, NOW and others lining up against such reforms, it would seem as though the President would need unified support behind him. At this juncture, such backing has yet to materialize.

Some traditional backers of Bush are also withholding support until the administration's proposals are more fleshed out. The Tax Relief Coalition, which was instrumental in pushing three Bush tax cuts in the first term, has been silent so far about tax overhaul. A senior official of the coalition, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized by the group to speak publicly, said that Bush's plan could hurt some businesses while helping others, depending on how extensive it is. Given the low level at which corporations currently pay federal income taxes, the official added, a thorough revamping of the code could increase taxes for individual industries, potentially transforming some Bush friends into enemies.

Other organizations that often move in tandem with Republicans have been pushing in their own directions. The National Retail Federation has been meeting with lawmakers and executive branch officials to warn about what they see as the dangers of imposing a national sales tax, a levy that could dampen store sales. Separately, the Association for Manufacturing Technology has been talking up the idea of accelerating tax write-offs for equipment, while the National Association of Realtors has been urging lawmakers to reject measures that would hinder homeownership.

It would be foolhardy to underestimate the administration's political skills and ability to effectively use the bully pulpit to advance its agenda. Regardless, Birnbaum and Weisman insinuate an important point: if a multitude of groups from across the political spectrum work together to fight Bush's plans to overhaul taxes and Social Security, it is possible that he will be unsuccessful in his attempts to redefine America's 70 year old social contract. It will take a concerted effort by the opposition, but the opposition can triumph.