The Portland Tribune's Jon Bell does some reporting from an economic conference at the Rotary Club of Portland that sheds some light on to the subject.

“The Oregon economy is on its way to recovery … but it’s going to be mild growth,” State Economist Tom Potiowsky told the Rotarians on Tuesday at the Governor Hotel. “It’s been a long haul.”

Job growth in Oregon last year was “disappointing,” he said, though some sectors, including semiconductor manufacturing and professional practices, are predicted to rise slightly this year. In addition, he said Oregon’s higher-than-average population growth continues to contribute to the state’s above-average unemployment rate.

At last year’s forum, Potiowsky predicted the state’s unemployment rate would fall from 7.3 percent to 6.5 percent in 2004; it ended the year at 7.1 percent or 124,791 unemployed people. He stuck with his 6.5 percent prediction for 2005.

John Mitchell, regional economist for U.S. Bancorp, and local economist Bill Conerly joined Potiowsky for the forecasting event. The three talked of the lumbering rise in employment, high energy costs, the falling U.S. dollar and other factors that will impact Oregon’s economy in the coming year. Natural gas, oil and electricity costs all are slated to increase this year.

I'm still quite skeptical about Oregon's economy -- and that of the entire nation -- for this year. True, I have little background in economics; nevertheless, as this article shows, the prediction by the state economist for 2004 was substantially off, showing that his guesswork is no better than mine.

Perhaps Oregon will hit 6.5% unemployment. That's still horrible and that's still not enough to call a good economy. The only thing to say to this is: "Thank you Mr. Bush."