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Monday, February 28, 2005

Dems Narrow Number of Seats to Defend

Last election, House Democrats labeled 19 seats as requiring significant DCCC funds to defend. In a move that will free up precious funds for attacking GOP seats, the Dems have narrowed the number of seats receiving this extra funding to nine. The Hill's Hans Nichols reports:

Emanuel’s higher vulnerability standards also indicate that the DCCC, under his direction, will implement a more calibrated strategy toward channeling member-to-member donations and will not ask lawmakers to part with campaign cash simply to pad skittish incumbents’ margins of victory.

The DCCC declined to confirm the names on the list, but numerous sources throughout the caucus, including aides for lawmakers who have been told of their Frontline status, said that Reps. Melissa Bean (Ill.), Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Chet Edwards (Texas), Stephanie Herseth (S.D.), Brian Higgins (N.Y.), Jim Matheson (Utah), Charlie Melancon (La.), Dennis Moore (Kan.), and John Salazar (Colo.) were informed last week that they will receive direct donations from their fellow incumbents, in addition to other campaign assistance.

[...]

This year’s shortened list could still grow by two or three lawmakers, several caucus sources said, pending redistricting in Georgia, where two marginal Democrats — freshman Rep. John Barrow and second-term Rep. Jim Marshall — will likely see their districts become more Republican.

Reps. Marshall, Tim Bishop (N.Y.), Lincoln Davis (Tenn.), Tim Holden (Pa.), Darleen Hooley (Ore.), Paul Kanjorksi (Pa.), Rick Larsen (Wash.), Mike Michaud (Maine) and Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) received the Frontline designation last cycle but were not included on Emanuel’s initial list. It was unclear if last cycle’s beneficiaries had been formally notified that they would not be included in this year’s program.

The pared-down list also reflects the Democrats’ confidence that several of their members who had been considered vulnerable are in fact safely ensconced in their districts, even if some of them have failed to throttle past the 55 percent ceiling. In previous cycles, the 55 percent high-water mark almost always guaranteed that an incumbent House Democrat would receive a crush of contributions from the chamber’s safer members.
Emanuel is entirely correct in strategizing a strong offense in order to defend his ranks. House Republicans are running scared right now on Social Security and the only way for the Democrats to gain traction from this is to devote resources to qualified challengers, not just incumbents.
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