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Friday, March 25, 2005

Privatization Takes Another Hit

Chuck Grassley has never been as one able to stick to the standard GOP message. The conservative Senate Finance Chairman blunt, Midwestern speaking style has in fact been cause for consternation among the Republican leadership for years. His comments to the Associated Press today are a prime example.

Sen. Charles Grassley, at the center of the fight over revising Social Security, said Friday that the odds are against Congress approving the proposal being pushed by President Bush.

"I think it's very difficult for me to say today that we'll present a bill to the president," the Iowa Republican said in an interview with Associated Press reporters and editors.
Even though such comments have come to be expected from Grassley, they nevertheless represent a further blow to the President as he attempts to privatize Social Security.

For all of the talk of bringing Democrats on board, the President has not done nearly enough to bring his own party on board yet. I'm not just talking about physical numbers (like the fact that only one of Alabama's five Republican Congressmen support private accounts). It's more fundamental than that.

President Bush has not yet made the Republicans believe this is a winning issue. Perhaps his trouble lies in the fact that it isn't a winning issue.

Even more importantly, the President no longer has coattails to offer to members of Congress in return for their support. The race for the Senate in 2006 won't play out in the South -- where Bush on the ticket helped immeasurably -- like in 2004; rather, most close races will happen either in states where the John Kerry won (i.e. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Minnesota) or the Democrats are resurgent (like Montana).

On the national level, Bush's numbers are tanking. A President in the 40s doesn't have much sway, but a President in the 30s (should he drop a few more points) has no power to cajole Congress into action.

In a sense, privatization isn't dead yet. Tax reform isn't dead yet, either, but no one in the Republican Party wants to touch it. Immigration reform isn't dead yet, but it would take a miracle to pass. Clear Skies isn't dead yet, but it's no where near passage. The Federal Marriage Amendment isn't dead yet, but it doesn't have the votes to get through Congress. So privatization isn't dead yet; it's just in a state of perpetual legislative limbo from which it will be very difficult to emerge -- ever.
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