The New York Times' Edmund L. Andrews does a masterful job of reporting on the effort to debunk the President's faulty economic models, upon which the Bush privatization scheme is based.

In barnstorming the country over Social Security, administration officials predict that American economic growth will slow to an anemic rate of 1.9 percent as baby boomers reach retirement.

Yet as they extol the rewards of letting people invest some of their payroll taxes in personal retirement accounts, President Bush and his allies assume that stock returns will be almost as high as ever, about 6.5 percent a year after inflation.

[...]

Many believe that stock returns will be lower than they have been in the past, closer to 5 percent than 6.5 percent, and that returns on a balanced mix of stocks and bonds will be much lower than that.

[...]

Under Mr. Bush's plan, moreover, people would need to earn at least 3 percent a year after inflation just to make up for automatic cuts in traditional Social Security benefits.

In a paper to be presented on Thursday at the Brookings Institution, three economists who are longtime critics of Mr. Bush argue that stock returns are likely to be about 4.5 percent if economic growth slows as much as the administration predicts.

If these models are correct -- and they most likely are because they have not been skewed by pro-administration lackeys -- and there is 4.5% average growth in the stock market rather than 6.5% average growth, a substantial number of Americans (20%-32%) will fare worse under the privatization scheme.

The American people aren't willing to bet their retirement fund for a one in three chance that they will earn a little more money. It's that simple. Until the President realizes this, there is no way he is going to win over the American people.