Or potentially less, so sayeth the sometimes-nonpartisan Larry Sabato. John Cochran (not the one that passed away last week) of CQ Weekly has the story:

But before campaigning begins in earnest, Republicans will want the slate wiped clean — one way or another, says Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who has written extensively about the arc of the political scandal.

DeLay has “less than a year” to get out from under this crisis or risk losing his leadership position, Sabato says. “He’s got maybe eight months, maybe less.”

This is a period of enormous danger for DeLay, according to Sabato and other political analysts. Swirling around the leader is a complicated, volatile tale involving overseas junkets, American Indian casino money, powerful lobbyists, a Senate committee inquiry and a Texas grand jury investigation. A criminal indictment is DeLay’s greatest worry, but any new allegation or detail that tumbles out now could cost him support.

As DeLay continues to drag down his party, Josh Marshall might have the right idea for the Democrats and progressives: make sure Tom DeLay doesn't resign. That way, the stink of his ethical problems will stick to every Republican across the nation, whether they're running for dog catcher or the United States Senate.