George W. Bush carried Indiana by 16 points in 2000, a whopping 21 points in 2004. No Democrat has carried the state since Lyndon Johnson. He did this in a year when he carried 60.9% of the national vote. Before that, the last Democrat to carry the state was FDR -- in his first reelection bid. That means even Franklin Delano Roosevelt lost Indiana twice.

None of this history bodes well for the Democrats' chances to pick up Indiana in 2008. However, a new Indianapolis Star/WTHR poll shows that the state's voters might be warming up to at least one Democratic presidential hopeful.

Two out of three Hoosiers believe Hoosier Sen. Evan Bayh has the personal qualities needed to be a good president.

And without knowing who the other candidates might be, about half said they are likely to vote for Bayh if he is the Democratic Party's presidential candidate in 2008, according to a new Indianapolis Star/WTHR (Channel 13) poll.

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But while only 49 percent said they are likely to vote for Bayh for president, political analysts said that's a good number. A third said they would vote for another candidate, and 18 percent weren't sure.

"Even if Evan Bayh runs for president, and even if he wins Indiana, he's not going to carry it with 70 percent of the vote. That's just the nature of partisan politics, particularly in Indiana, where partisanship is pretty important," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "I think he can make the case that as a Democrat running for president, he can carry his own state."

Indiana is not the only place in the Mthat might be looking up for the Democrats. As Peter Slevin reports today in The Washington Post, a number of farmers in the region are becoming increasingly unhappy with Republican proposals to slash farm subsidies (a move fiercely opposed by Midwestern Dems).

No one is talking about eliminating federal subsidies, just reducing them. But in North Dakota, where more than three in four farmers receive payments -- the highest percentage of any state -- the proposals working their way through the hearing rooms on Capitol Hill are big news.

Bush proposed cuts of $5.7 billion from agricultural programs over the next 10 years as part of a deficit reduction package. The House Budget Committee set the figure at $5.3 billion, while its Senate counterpart said $2.8 billion should be trimmed.

Exactly how much will be cut and from which programs remain to be determined this summer. Congressional leaders must settle on a target, which can be met in many ways, including by cutting food stamps.

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Victory is in the beholder's eye, and as far as most North Dakota farmers are concerned, any cut would be a bad cut.

While the President's proposal bodes well in the short term for Democratic Senators Kent Conrad (ND) and Ben Nelson (NE) -- both of whom expect difficult reelection bids -- it is highly possible that such a move could provide an opening for the Democrats in the region.

While Americans might not believe in porkbarrel legislation, it's not clear that they are opposed to helping out small family farmers -- a position that would also help the Dems immeasurably in the Midwest. The Democrats can also help themselves on the issue of defense by protecting America's farms from unfair budget cuts by the Republicans. Surely it is in the national interest to have ample food production in case of a crisis, terrorist attack or war. China's reliance on American foodstuffs certainly would make them think twice before taking any aggressive action against the West.

On a number of economic issues, Bush and the Republicans have left themselves wide open to the mass defection of some of their most important supporters. Now, it's up to the Democrats to make best use of this opportunity to help bring North Dakotans, Indianans, and voters across the region into their camp for 2006, 2008 and beyond.