The New York Times' David E. Rosenbaum and Robin Toner take a hard look at the privatization plan's chances of even reaching the Senate floor. In two words: not good.

The Senate Finance Committee's first full-scale debate on Social Security raised new doubt Tuesday about whether a majority of the committee would vote for President Bush's proposal for individual investment accounts.

All the Democrats on the panel who spoke said they were resolutely opposed to the president's plan. And the reservations of Republicans were more ominous for the White House.

As a last resort, some administration officials have said, they might be able to keep their plan alive by pushing a private accounts bill through the Finance Committee on a party-line vote rather than in a bipartisan manner. But at the hearing, one Republican, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, said she did not want to tamper with "the foundation for our seniors," and another, Senator Craig Thomas of Wyoming, expressed concern over the amount of borrowing that proposals like the president's would require.

The committee has 11 Republicans and 9 Democrats. If only one Republican joins a solid bloc of Democrats, the measure will fail for lack of a majority and will not be sent to the full Senate.

While it's good to see The Times imply that the privatization plan is all but dead, but isn't it about time that the pundits began to shift their "conventional wisdom" as well. I'm ready to see the talking heads over at Fox discuss the death of the President's plan for hours upon end... but I'm not holding my breath.