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Thursday, May 19, 2005

2006: 1994 Redux?

Much time has been spent among America's political minds discussing whether a monumental election -- a la 1994 -- but most seem to write off Democrats' chances at winning back Congress due to the sheer lack of competitive seats. Nevertheless, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll indicates the nation is overwhelmingly ready for change. Mark Murray has the story:

As the Senate marches closer toward a nuclear showdown over President Bush’s judicial nominees, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the American public is dissatisfied — with Congress and its priorities, with Bush’s plan to overhaul Social Security and with the nation’s economy and general direction. Moreover, a majority believes that the Senate should make its own decision about the president’s judicial nominees, rather than just generally confirming them.

And while all of this might suggest bad news for Republicans, since the political party in charge often gets blamed when things aren’t going well, the survey also indicates that the public isn’t quite embracing the Democrats either. “It is just a sense of unhappiness with where we’re at,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

Perhaps the most revealing finding in the poll is the attitude toward Congress. Just 33 percent of the respondents approve of Congress’ job. That’s down 6 points since a poll in April and 8 points since January.

“The public is exceptionally displeased with the Congress,” Hart said. “It is [its] lowest set of numbers since May of 1994,” the year when congressional Republicans defeated their Democratic counterparts in the midterm elections to take control of both the House and Senate. According to this poll, by 47 percent to 40 percent the public says it would prefer Democrats controlling Congress after the 2006 elections.
Again, I'm skeptical that the Democrats will be able to parlay national disconent into a real shot at victory in 2006. What's more, while voters are shunning the Republicans today, it's still nearly 18 months before election day, so the Republicans have a strong opportunity to reverse their fortunes.

That all having been said, no one could have predicted six months ago that President Bush and his increased Congressional majorities would be mired in virtual quicksand, rapidly losing the support of the American people. What's more, with the possibility that the GOP coalition is beginning to fracture over issues like immigration and the ever-expanding deficit, Karl Rove has his work cut out for him.

One thing is certain, however: By continuing to pursue an unpopular agenda -- a majority of Americans disapprove of the nuclear option and Bush's handling of Social Security, for instance -- the Republicans are risking alienating most Americans. And should that happen, 2006 could actually turn out like 1994.
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