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Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Bush Disapproval at an All-Time High
The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has conducted a new roll on a wide range of political issues, most of which bode poorly for President Bush and his Congressional allies. Among the key numbers in the poll:
While the American people as a whole clearly do not follow action inside the Beltway intently, they are quick to notice when one party begins to overreach -- as happened in 1993 and today. Again, it is much to soon to speculate about possible ramifications. However, it is safe to say that the next year and a half will see some of the most bitterness between the two parties in quite some time.
- By a "37%-28% [margin], the general public opposes changing the Senate rules to stop the use of filibusters against judicial nominees. [...] Among the minority who have followed the story fairly or very closely, a majority (54%) opposes changing the rules on Senate filibusters."
- "President Bush's overall job approval rating stands at 43%, down from 49% in late March. That equals the lowest mark in Bush's presidency (43% in April 2004)." His disapproval rating of 50% is the highest seen in a Pew poll.
- "Although neither party is escaping blame, the damage to the Republican Party's image may be more severe. Just 35% of Americans say they approve of the job Republican leaders in Congress are doing; 50% disapprove, up from 44% in March of this year, and 42% a year ago. Public approval of Democratic leaders is only slightly higher (39% approve, 41% disapprove), but has remained unchanged over the past two years."
These generally unfavorable views may have political ramifications for incumbents seeking reelection in 2006. While by more than two-to-one (49%-23%), more say they approve than disapprove of their own representative in the House, this is comparable to measures of satisfaction in the summer of 1993, a year before the historic midterm elections in 1994 in which the Democratic Party lost its majority in the House.There is no indication that the widespread disapproval of Congress will actually lead to repercussions for Congressional Republicans -- especially in the House, where there simply are not enough competitive seats on either side of the aisle to make change likely -- the resemblence between the situation in Washington today and in the summer of 1993 is stunning.
While the American people as a whole clearly do not follow action inside the Beltway intently, they are quick to notice when one party begins to overreach -- as happened in 1993 and today. Again, it is much to soon to speculate about possible ramifications. However, it is safe to say that the next year and a half will see some of the most bitterness between the two parties in quite some time.
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