The battle to win federal and statewide campaigns in 2006 could hinge on the West, and there's plenty of news from the region these days. To begin with, CQ Today's Midday Update (free email service) passes on news that Montana Senator Conrad Burns (R) is in a desperate battle for his political life.

The Billings Gazette reports that Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., “leads trial matchups against potential Democratic opponents for the 2006 election.” A May 23-25 telephone survey of 625 likely Montana voters showed Burns leading state Auditor John Morrison “by a 49 to 34 percent margin, with 17 percent undecided.” Burns led Senate President Jon Tester “by a 50 to 26 percent margin, with 24 percent undecided.” He also led former Missoula Mayor and ex-House Speaker Daniel Kemmis by 53-23 percent, with the rest undecided.

Any long-time incumbent barely cracking 50% against relatively unknown competition is in some serious trouble. In other interesting data from the poll, the Billings Gazette's Allison Farrell writes,

Montana voters, by a 51 to 31 percent margin with the rest undecided, oppose President Bush's proposal to partially privatize Social Security, a new Gazette State Poll shows.

The poll results also found that Montana candidates for the U.S. Senate or House might suffer political consequences if they back Bush's plans. Bush visited Great Falls in February to pitch his plan to Montanans.

[...]

Montana voters are also less likely to vote a candidate for the U.S. House or the Senate who supports Bush's Social Security plan, the poll shows. Thirty-nine percent of voters said they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush's plan, while 20 percent of voters said they would be more likely to vote a supporter of the president's plan.

Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., and Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., are both up for re-election in 2006. Burns said Friday he doesn't feel comfortable with the Bush plan, and said he's continuing to work with his colleagues on a solution to Social Security. Rehberg believes Social Security needs to be fixed, but as far as the private accounts he's not convinced, said Rehberg's press secretary Brad Keena on Friday.

Montana's Republicans are not the only ones in retreat these days. As Kevin Yamamura reports for The Sacramento Bee, trouble is brewing in the Golden state.

Product placement is common in Hollywood. The movie producer puts a certain brand on film and the company kicks in some cash.

So it's not difficult to understand why a citizen watchdog group cried foul last week when products made by some of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign contributors showed up in a political ad.

The set for a 30-second spot about Schwarzenegger's budget-control initiative resembles a cafeteria and features a Pepsi, a bottle of Arrowhead water, a Dr Pepper and a rack of potato chips.

All are manufactured by companies that have given money to Schwarzenegger political committees, according to the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights. It demanded last week he return nearly $300,000 in contributions.

With Schwarzenegger at 40% in the most recent polling, this news can't make the Schwarzenegger people too happy. Perhaps this will make Warren Beatty begin to think seriously about a run for Governor...