Rhode Island's Rockefeller Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee is in serious jeopardy in his bid for reelection. Nevertheless, he still leads his closest Democratic challenger by ten points, according to The Providence Journal:

The poll showed Chafee with a 10-point lead over his closest Democratic competitor, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse . But Chafee did not break 50 percent in head-to-head matchups with either Whitehouse or Secretary of State Matthew Brown .

If the election were held today, the poll found:

Voters would favor Chafee over Whitehouse, 41 percent to 31 percent, with 27 percent undecided.

They would also favor Chafee over Brown, 44 percent to 27 percent, with 28 percent undecided, and 1 percent refusing an answer to both questions.

An incumbent sitting at 41 percent cannot be comfortable. That having been said, I'd like to see the internals to see who the 27% undecided are. If they are disaffected Republicans, Chafee has a slim shot at bringing them back into the fold come election day (that is if he doesn't face a primary challenge or a strong Constitution Party or Libertarian Party challenger on the right). However, if the undecideds are predominantly Democrats, Chafee might be in for a tougher ride as 2006 will likely be a national referendum on conservative Republican policies (which don't sit well in Rhode Island).

Chafee's best shot could come if he chooses to forsake both parties and run in the middle as an independent. With an outpouring of Democratic support, while still maintaining the backing of many Republicans, Chafee could ride the center aisle to victory with about 40%, though he is unlikely to take this approach.