Charlie Cook, the nation's preeminent non-partisan political analyst, posits an interesting theory this week in his email column: will Tom DeLay forgo a reelection bid?

[D]oes DeLay face more formidable opposition if he seeks re-election in 2006 than he did last year, when he beat neophyte Democrat Richard Morrison 55-41 percent, with a Libertarian candidate and an independent each garnering 2 percent? Yes.

Former Rep. Nick Lampson, who represented about 20 percent of this district before a DeLay-engineered redistricting, is the strong frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Lampson might face Houston City Councilman Gordon Quan in a March primary.

Given the substantially greater adversity that DeLay faces today, it might be enough to cost him 5 to 9 percentage points and the seat.

While DeLay spent more than $2.7 million to get re-elected in 2004, not counting considerable outside resources that went into the effort, this time it would likely cost upwards of $5 million.

Keep in mind, the 22nd District is not DeLay's old rock-ribbed Republican seat. DeLay was a team player in redistricting, and gave up heavily Republican areas, picking up Democratic territory, as a gesture to urge Republican members also to give up friendly territory.

In retrospect, he really could use that old turf. One Washington insider privately noted that it would be ironic if DeLay ended up being the first GOP casualty of his own redistricting plan.

[...]

Given the incredible expense both financially and personally that this is likely to take on DeLay, it would not be surprising if he decides not to run at all.

Clearly, the Democrats would either like to see DeLay go down quickly or stick around through the 2006 elections to use as an example of Republican graft in campaigns across the country. Opting against running for reelection might be the only way DeLay can mitigate against Republican losses in 2006 (and even that might not suffice).

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