In the aftermath of the deal postponing the "nuclear" option, the constant spin of both sides has made it difficult to decipher the winners from the losers. For instance, although extreme right elements were livid becaue the nuclear option was not invoked, three of President Bush's most right wing nominees are on the path to the judiciary without the Republicans being slammed for overturning Senate tradition. Just the same, though many on the left are unhappy that the three nominees will become judges, the Democrats still have the right to filibuster -- in theory.

Today, the Los Angeles Times' political guru Ron Brownstein provides a more nuanced look at the ramifications of the deal that paints a fuller picture of the winners and losers of the battle.

Especially since Bush's reelection, Democrats have been divided on electoral strategy. One camp believes the key to revival is courting centrist swing voters (a la Bill Clinton's "third way"). The second says the party must emulate Bush and focus on mobilizing its base by stressing unity.

In different ways, the judicial deal is at least tolerable to both camps. Third-way types applaud it for promoting bipartisan compromise. The party-unity group likes it because it kept Senate Democrats unified against the filibuster ban.

By contrast, the deal threatens the ruling political paradigm among Republicans. Since 2001, energizing the conservative base, even at the price of straining relations with more centrist voters, has been the core of Bush's legislative and political strategy.

That approach has generated undeniable benefits for him. The massive turnout from the GOP base was the largest factor in Bush's reelection. His strength in culturally conservative areas has helped Republicans solidify their dominance of congressional seats in GOP-leaning "red" states.

But last week's deal reflected a fear among some of its GOP participants that the White House had pushed that polarizing approach to the point of dangerously alienating moderate voters. Bush's approval rating has tumbled below 50% and runs lower among independents and moderates. The numbers for Congress have been sinking like Nasdaq after the Internet stock bubble burst. In a CBS poll last week, Congress' approval rating among independents fell to an anemic 26%.

The defection (even temporarily) of seven Republican Senators on the "nuclear" option and 50 House GOPers on the stem cell bill are indeed indicative of the growing concern that 2006 will be a difficult year for conservative Republicans. More and more GOP members of Congress simply do not want to go down with the ship, so they are increasingly willing to abandon their party on key votes.

While this trend has yet to fully materialize -- Republicans still have higher party unity scores than the Democrats -- it must be discouraging for diehard conservatives to see their party fracturing just at the apex of its power.