This week, Charlie Cook indicates his skepticism that the President's relatively high basement of approval ratings probably will not lead to massive Congressional losses come 2006.

Yes, there is a clear historical pattern for second-term, midterm election losses. The party whose president was in power lost dozens of House seats in 1958, 1966 and 1974, for example. But, having said that, the intensely polarized electorate adds a new and very different dynamic. Combined with the low number of competitive races, it is virtually impossible for such huge losses to happen this time.

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Craig Crawford seems to have a little less faith in the President's now faltering approval ratings. In his column this week in CQ Weekly, he writes,

So this is probably a good time for Bush to cut his losses. Domestic distractions are draining his power and creating the impression that he is not focused on a solution for the deepening crisis in Iraq. But there is still time to cut a deal on Social Security that allows him the appearance of success even if it does not get all he wants.

One sign that Bush might understand his need to reshuffle the deck came in his answer to a recent question about closing the military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. “We’re exploring all alternatives,” he said on the Fox News Channel, broadly hinting that he might be looking for a way to end the voracious debate about guards abusing prisoners.

The most dangerous aspect of Bush’s sideshow-laden second term is how the extraneous issues he pursues give Americans the impression that he has dropped the ball in Iraq. With some fresh ideas, and some new faces at the helm, Bush might regain the public’s faith in his management of the worsening situation there.

Every time the president hits the road to talk about Social Security, it looks like he is living in denial about the bad news from Iraq. If he dumps the divisive domestic agenda and shows some new thinking about Iraq, the president will have his comeback.