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Friday, July 29, 2005

Gallup: Bush Approval at its Lowest Point

USA Today passes on the results of the most recent polling from Gallup, and the results are not particularly beneficial for the administration.

President Bush's job approval ratings have hit the lowest point of his tenure and the number of Americans with an unfavorable opinion of him has reached 50% for the first time, according to a Gallup poll released Friday.
Forty-four percent of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling his job, according to the poll, while 51% disapprove. That is a four-point drop from Bush's approval rating of July 22-24 and 1% below his previous low of 45% in a poll taken June 24-26. Bush's approval ratings have now been at 50% or lower since mid-March.

The poll also puts Bush's unfavorable rating among Americans at the highest level of his presidency — 50%. Forty-eight percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of the president, marking the first time in Bush's tenure that his unfavorable rating is higher than his favorable rating. In contrast, a Gallup poll in late November of 2001, less than three months after the Sept. 11 terror attacks, put Bush's favorable rating at 87% and his unfavorable rating at 11%.

Bush's previous low favorable rating came twice in October 2004, when 51% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the president and 46% had an unfavorable opinion.
[Update 10:09 AM Pacific]: Looking at some more data...

Recent Gallup Polls have shown growing positive momentum for the Democratic Party, even while Bush's ratings were somewhat higher. For example, the July 22-24 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found 52% of Americans rating the Democratic Party favorably, while just 46% give a favorable rating to the Republican Party. When the question was last asked in April, each party was rated favorably by 50% of Americans.

Additionally, Gallup has observed a consistent edge for the Democrats in terms of national party identification in its recent polls. In the current poll, 33% say they are Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 37% independents. This is the fourth consecutive poll in which Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in Gallup Polls.
Could this be a function on the party registration in the poll? Possible, but unlikely.

July 25-28 -- 33% Dem, 28% GOP, 37% Ind

July 22-24 -- 36% Dem, 32% GOP, 31% Ind

July 7-10 -- 35% Dem, 30% GOP, 33% Ind

June 29-30 -- 38% Dem, 29% GOP, 31% Ind
[Update 5:23 PM Pacific, July 30]: The above table has been changed due to a previous typo.
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