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Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Campaign 2006: Senate Wednesday

The special election in Ohio's second Congressional District last week might just be the tip of the iceberg for Republicans, if today's report from The Hill's Peter Savodnik proves true.

Gun activists angry with Sen. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) and the state GOP are welcoming talk of Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) challenging the second-term senator next year.

Frustration with DeWine hit a new high late last month when the senator was one of only two Republicans (Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island being the other) to oppose a bill shielding gun manufacturers from liability for damages resulting from the use of their products.

The vote came about two months after DeWine joined the so-called Gang of 14 to forge a judicial-nominees agreement, alienating many conservatives who felt the seven Republicans in the group had jettisoned party principle in the name of bipartisanship.

In a possible sign of just how angry conservatives were at the pact over judicial nominees , DeWine’s son, Pat, a local Republican official, came in fourth in a June 14 GOP congressional primary in the staunchly Republican 2nd District.

Ryan, in his second term, has not declared his political plans but has been repeatedly mentioned in Ohio and inside the Beltway as a possible Senate contender. Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), loathed by conservatives for his outspoken opposition to free trade, tax cuts and gun rights, among other issues, also may run.

“Personally, as an individual and an ardent Republican, I would love to see anyone run against DeWine, especially Ryan,” said Rick Kaleda, the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) election-volunteer coordinator in Ryan’s 17th District. The NRA endorsed Ryan in his successful 2002 Democratic primary bid against then-Rep. Tom Sawyer.
Paul Hackett, who might run if Ryan and Brown forgo their own possible campaigns for Senate, is also opposed to many gun restrictions. Perhaps this isn't the best time to be a Republican in Ohio after all.

The Hill's Savodnik also picks up on a Republican poll showing Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) in a somewhat safe position as she seeks a second term in the Senate.

A Republican poll to be released today shows Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) leading her presumed GOP opponent, Mike McGavick, by eight points.

Cantwell, a freshman, received 46 percent of the vote versus McGavick’s 38 percent in the Strategic Vision poll. Sixteen percent of voters said they were undecided.

McGavick is the president and CEO of Safeco, an insurance giant based in Seattle. He is slated to step down from the company’s helm at the end of this month.

Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson acknowledged that McGavick trails Cantwell but stressed that the senator is “below the critical 50-percent mark.”

She raised close to $1.7 million in the second quarter of 2005, bringing her cash on hand to just more than $3 million.
Forty-six percent is not a great place for an incumbent, but 38 percent for a challenger in a partisan poll isn't too great either. This one might be close, but it's not clear that it will be that close come next fall.
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