A number of denizens of the right hemisphere of American politics claim that the special election in Ohio's second district does not forshadow an imminent changes in Ohio or national politics. Rather, they believe, a 52% victory -- even in a district that tends to favor the GOP by a 2:1 margin -- is still a victory. Stellar non-partisan political analyst Charlie Cook disagrees, though.

There are at least a hundred different interpretations of last week's fascinating special election in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, where former Republican state Rep. Jean Schmidt just barely held onto this overwhelmingly Republican district -- the second safest GOP district in the state and the 57th most Republican district in the country -- with 51.7 percent of the vote. Yet anyway you slice it, the reality is that this special election holds some serious warning signals for Republicans, especially those living in Ohio.

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[I]t is clear that there is deeper significance to this race than some Republicans admit. There are those close to the White House who remain dismissive of the election's overall significance, but to ignore the warning signals this race has given off is to tempt the gods. Just as odd-year gubernatorial races often (though not always) foreshadow subsequent national results, special elections can be a harbinger for what the upcoming national election will hold.

Republicans nationwide might take note that a message of "don't send someone to Congress who will be a rubber stamp for President Bush" resonated surprisingly well in a very GOP district. Plus, whatever sentiment for change that may be out there in the country, it is magnified at least 100 times in Ohio. The state has been dominated by the Republican Party for years and is now rocked with scandals that threaten their stranglehold, which currently extends to every single statewide office and the vast majority of downballot offices as well. Also at stake: a highly vulnerable open governorship and a GOP Senate incumbent, as well as up to eight GOP-held House seats that could end up being in play, each one significantly less Republican than the 2nd District.

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