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Friday, August 26, 2005

Gallup: Bush Approval at Lowest Point Ever

George Bush has seen his approval among the American people diminish to the lowest point of his Presidency in recent weeks. The latest poll from Gallup only confirms this already-reported trend.

A new Gallup Poll reflects further erosion in President George W. Bush's job approval rating, continuing the slow but steady decline evident throughout the year so far. The poll -- conducted Aug. 22-25 -- puts Bush's job approval rating at 40% and his disapproval rating at 56%. Both are the most negative ratings of the Bush administration. Bush's previous low point in approval was 44% (July 25-28, 2005) and his previous high point in disapproval was 53% (June 24-26, 2005).

[...]

The current poll finds a drop in support for Bush among independents, and a small drop in support among Republicans to the lowest level of his administration.

In two July polls in which Bush averaged an overall 49% approval rating, an average of 46% of independents approved. In the subsequent three polls (July 25-28, Aug. 5-7, and Aug. 8-11), Bush's overall approval average dropped to 45%, and his average support among independents fell to 37%. Now, in the current poll, 32% of independents approve. (An average of 41% of independents have approved across all 2005 polls to date, excluding the most recent poll.)

Bush's support among Republicans -- although still very high -- is now at the lowest level of his administration. His current 82% approval rating among Republicans is down from the 85%, 86%, 87%, 87%, and 86% recorded in the last five polls prior to this one, and is below the 89% Republican approval rating he has received across all 2005 polls before the most recent poll. He has averaged a 92% approval rating among Republicans for his entire presidency.

Bush's approval rating among Democrats remains very low. His current 13% is down slightly from his 2005 average (excluding the current poll) of 17% and down from his administration average among Democrats of 35%.
The analysis for this poll falls squarely in line with that of the most recent ARG poll that showed the President at 36% approval. Bush sees a small decline within his own party, but much of the pain comes from independents moving ever closer to the Democrats in their view of his Presidency.

While this might not have an extremely large effect on Bush's ability to govern on international matters or on the fate of Supreme Court nominee John Roberts, the President's eroding numbers could give more pause to Congressional Republicans the next time a major piece of legislation -- say Social Security reform, for example -- comes to the table. There is already evidence available that some within the GOP are distancing themselves from the President; this latest poll won't further endear him to them.

On a somewhat separate note, Gallup compares President Bush's approval at this point to that of the other two-term Presidents since polling became widely accessible during the Truman administration.

Only Richard Nixon, then embroiled in the Watergate scandal, had a lower approval rating at this point in his presidency (34%). The next lowest numbers belonged to Harry Truman -- who in June of 1949 stood at 58%.
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