In the special election to replace former Rep. Rob Portman, who resigned this year to become US trade representative, Republican Jeane Schmidt pulled off a four point victory -- in a district Bush carried with 64 percent of the vote in 2004. The AP's Dan Sewell writes up the results of the election as follows:

A Republican former state lawmaker claimed a seat in Congress on Tuesday by narrowly defeating an Iraq war veteran who drew national attention to the race with his military service and a series of harsh attacks on President Bush.

With all precincts reporting, Jean Schmidt had 52 percent, or 57,974 votes, compared with Democrat Paul Hackett's 48 percent, or 54,401 votes. Schmidt's margin of victory amounted to about 3,500 votes out of more than 112,000 cast.

Schmidt, 53, will replace Republican Rob Portman, who stepped down this year after being named U.S. trade representative by Bush. Portman held the seat for 12 years, consistently winning with more than 70 percent of the vote in the Cincinnati-area district.

Democrats had viewed the race as a bellwether for 2006, saying even a strong showing by Hackett in such a heavily GOP district would be a good sign for them in the midterm elections.

As Charlie Cook notes this week (we've already quoted him once today), special elections like the one held today have often forshadowed the results of future elections.

Special elections in 1993 and early 1994, for example, gave us a sneak preview of the storm clouds Democrats were headed for down the road.

In Kentucky's 2nd District, Republican Ron Lewis easily won a special election in May of 1994 to replace longtime popular Democrat Bill Natcher -- an early sign of the beating Democrats were going to take that November in southern districts across the country.

In Wisconsin, a special election in May of 1993 to replace popular Democratic Rep. Les Aspin -- who had been tapped by President Clinton to serve as secretary of Defense -- proved to be a political canary-in-a-coal-mine as well. Democrat Peter Barca beat Republican Mark Neumann by just 675 votes in a district that Aspin had easily carried for 23 years. Just a few months earlier, Aspin had crushed Neumann with 58 percent of the vote. In 1994, Neumann beat Barca by 1,120 votes.

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Certainly at this point, it would be absurd to imply that the Democrats will see monumental gains in 2006 simply because of the results of this election. All politics are local, and the situation in Ohio is quite grave for the Republicans, who are embroiled in the monumental "Coingate" scandal. What's more, we stand more than a year away from the 2006 midterms. Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Democrats nearly won in a district that has not been competitive in my lifetime. And if anyone believes that that is not in and of itself a significant occurence, I'm not sure what would surprise them.

[Update 10:05 PM Pacific]: The New York Times' James Dao raises another important fact from today's election.

Perhaps most important, the Republican organization in Clermont County, Ms. Schmidt's base, turned out voters in greater numbers than expected, pushing her over the top. The returns showed that Ms. Schmidt won handily in most of the affluent Cincinnati suburbs, while Mr. Hackett won the district's more rural counties. [emphasis added]

A Democrat mopping up in rural areas?