National

Professional pundit Larry Sabato has provided a new prospective on the 2006 Senate elections and now sees a possibility, however slight, of the Democrats retaking the Senate next year.

With an effective lead of 55-45 in the Senate, Republicans continue to have the clear early edge to retain control--especially since they only have to defend 15 of the 33 seats up for election in next year. Yet Katrina, Iraq, gas prices, growing national debt, President Bush's unpopularity, and other factors might conspire to produce Democratic gains or even a takeover, as wild as that speculation appears today.

In Sabato's eyes, the Democrats' path to victory must include holding all three open seats (Vermont, New Jersey and Minnesota) and all incumbent seats (North Dakota, West Virginia, Washington, Florida and Nebraska) while picking up all close seats (Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, Tennesee, Arizona, Montana and/or Missouri).

Interestingly, Sabato puts the Missouri race in the "solid Republican" camp despite the fact that incumbent Jim Talent is currently tied in the polls with Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill.

Florida

U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris can't seem to catch a break. The latest round of Republican polling from Strategic Vision shows the former Florida Secretary of State still trailing incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by double digits.

If the election were held today for United States Senate, whom would you support, Bill Nelson, the Democrat or Katherine Harris, the Republican?

Bill Nelson 48%
Katherine Harris 36%
Undecided 16%

Oklahoma

Oklahoma might be one of the "reddest" states to have a Democratic Governor, but it seems that the Sooners still overwhelmingly like Brad Henry. Now, as The Hill's Jim Snyder reports, new polling shows Henry with a somewhat comfortable lead over his strongest potential challenger.

A poll paid for by the Oklahoma state GOP shows Rep. Ernest Istook, now in his seventh term, as the strongest contender against Gov. Brad Henry, a Democrat.

Istook is considering running for the chance to take on Henry, who was elected in 2002 with just more than 43 percent of the vote and is among the GOP’s biggest 2006 targets.

The poll measured five potential Republican nominees against Henry.

Istook finished the strongest but would not win, according to the poll. In that race, Henry would beat Istook 44 to 36 percent.

If a Dem can win here, I suppose he can win anywhere...

California

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, embroiled in a difficult political battle, is telling President Bush to stay out of his state for the time being. Carla Marinucci has the story for The San Francisco Chronicle.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Tuesday he wants President Bush to delay a planned October fundraising visit to California because the governor fears it will siphon off donations he needs to help his Nov. 8 special election measures.

"In the next two months, it would be better if we just do the fundraising," Schwarzenegger said in an interview with The Chronicle. "Then let us go (past) our special election -- and then they can pick it up again, the (Republican) national committee."

[...]

The event -- set right before the special election -- has dramatized the tug-of-war between state and national Republicans over the party's big donors in California. National party officials say Schwarzenegger appears to be keeping the president at arm's length while Bush is unpopular in California. But the governor's staff and state Republicans have made it clear to the White House that "the timing couldn't be worse," said one high-level state Republican who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With Schwarzenegger under pressure to raise millions of dollars to boost his special election measures, Republicans said donors in the state -- widely acknowledged as the cash machine of national politics -- are being maxed out.

Republican donors maxed out? If this isn't a sign of weakness in a state like California, I'm not sure what would be.