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Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Could Katrina Scuttle GOP Plans for Big Cuts?

Earlier this week we wondered if Congressional Republicans would have the stomach to gut entitlement programs, including student loans and Medicaid, and repeal the estate tax as hundreds of thousands reeled in the Gulf Coast. Early signals indicate that the GOP will not immediately move forward with a vote on estate tax repeal, and now, as Jeffery Young and Josephine Hearn report for The Hill, it appears that the GOP is having some trouble with the spending cuts.

Hurricane Katrina, or at least its political wake, could give congressional Democrats an opportunity to do something they had been powerless to do earlier this year — scuttle the GOP’s plans to cut taxes and entitlement spending.

An impending parliamentary ruling could strip the final budget-reconciliation bill of its special limitations on debate, effectively enabling Democrats to stall the measure when it reaches the Senate floor and robbing the GOP of a major fiscal-policy victory.

The minority party could seek to amend the bill, wrench concessions from Republicans or filibuster budget reconciliation in its entirety.

The Republican leaders of the Senate and the House are under pressure to push back their deadline of Friday next week for committees to complete packages of tax and spending cuts required by the fiscal 2006 budget resolution. Congress is required under the budget conference report to develop a five-year plan to cut taxes by $70 billion and reduce entitlement spending by $35 billion.

[...]

For the Senate Republican leadership, however, the reconciliation waters are murkier. Pressing ahead with budget legislation that would provide tax benefits to the well-off while trimming spending on programs, such as Medicaid, that benefit mainly low-income people would be politically difficult.

But extending the deadline without relinquishing the special rules that limit debate and allow passage with only 51 votes would probably require a unanimous-consent agreement in the Senate.
Although sheer numbers are obviously important in Congress -- the majority party in either house has wide authority and power -- never underestimate the importance of parliamentary rules. Senate Democrats, with several members who have been in the chamber for more than 30 years (Robert Byrd, Ted Kennedy, Dan Inouye, Joe Biden, and Patrick Leahy), have a great wealth of parliamentary tactics under their belts (particularly in the case of Byrd) and are not likely to give up their current advantange on this issue.
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