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Wednesday, September 28, 2005

The Political Fallout from the DeLay Indictment

With no immediate end in sight to Tom DeLay's woes, The Hill's Jonathan E. Kaplan notes that despite successe in November 2004, 2005 has been a difficult year for the Republican Party.

A bad year just got worse for the Republican Party when Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) was indicted yesterday.

Since House Republicans slightly expanded their majority in 2004, they have run into one political stumbling block after another, and DeLay’s indictment is just the latest bout of intrigue that has created a political climate not seen since 1994, when Republicans ended the Democrats’ 40-year rule of the House and won control of the Senate.

“We’re going through a rough patch,” said a rank-and-file Republican lawmaker. “I’m more worried about Bush’s poll numbers. The concern [among House Republicans] about DeLay is: Does it disrupt our internal unity and focus?”

[...]

On issue after issue — ethics, Terri Schiavo, the demise of Social Security privatization, charges of influence peddling and corruption, a rising death toll in the war in Iraq, rising gasoline prices, the govern-ment’s sluggish response to Hurricane Katrina and the sale of stock from Majority Leader Bill Frist’s (R-Tenn.) trust fund — Republicans have been caught flatfooted and appeared beleaguered at times.

“It’s the drip, drip thing they have to worry about,” said former Democratic whip Tony Coelho, who resigned his seat amid scandal in 1989 and watched the Republicans create a perception of corruption among the electorate. “There’s a term that Newt [Gingrich] coined, ‘the arrogance of power,’ which he used that against Speaker Jim Wright and the Democrats. It’s happening to them right now.”

Coelho added, “They’re now facing a very strong headwind because Bush’s popularity is going way down and he no longer provides a protective umbrella for the Congress. It’s going to be a continuing, building story.”
[Update 10:30 PM Pacific]: One of Oregon's top pollsters echoes Kaplan's tone, notes The Washington Post's Dan Balz.

Tim Hibbits, an Oregon-based pollster, said the DeLay indictment by itself may be less significant in shaping the partisan environment than some others suggested, but he argued that it will deepen the disenchantment of swing voters toward the political system. For a multitude of reasons, he said, Republicans have much to fear about the year ahead. "I think the Republicans at this point are in more trouble than they realize," Hibbits said.
The AP's Larry Margasak, who has been working this story from all angles, writes today that the DeLay story might continue to grow from its present form.

The political committee of Rep. Roy Blunt, who is temporarily replacing Rep. Tom DeLay as House majority leader, has paid roughly $88,000 in fees since 2003 to a consultant under indictment in Texas with DeLay, according to federal records.

Keri Ann Hayes, executive director of the Rely on Your Beliefs Fund, said the organization has been has been satisfied with the work done by Jim Ellis, but has not discussed whether he will be retained.

"We haven't had that conversation," she said. So far, she added, Ellis' indictment had no impact on his work.

Records on file with the Federal Election Commission show the fund linked to Blunt retains Ellis' firm, J.W. Ellis Co., and has made periodic payments for services. Political Money Line, a nonpartisan Internet tracking service, places the total at about $88,000.

Ellis is one of three political associates of DeLay, R-Texas, who have been indicted in an alleged scheme to use corporate political donations illegally to support candidates in state elections. Ellis also runs DeLay's national political action committee, Americans for a Republican Majority.
Drip, drip, drip...
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