National

While the Democrats still trail Republicans in cash-on-hand, for the first time this year, there was some parity in the two parties' fundraising, reports CQ Politics Weekly (a free email service).

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported raising $5.4 million in September. That made it the first month in the 2006 campaign cycle that the DCCC has outraised its Republican House counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which took in $3.9 million last month.

The NRCC still had more available cash than the DCCC as October began: $17.6 million to $11.3 million. But the DCCC significantly narrowed the gap in September. Not only did the DCCC raise more money than the NRCC in September, it also spent less than half what the Republican committee spent last month.

The DCCC reported making a debt repayment of $367,000 last month and began October with $2.6 million in remaining debt. The NRCC is debt-free.

The DCCC’s strong September showing was attributed partly to the contributions of House Democratic incumbents, who transferred about $1.5 million to the committee from their own campaign treasuries.

The DCCC also received contributions of at least $25,000 each from 28 individual donors (including a dozen donors who gave the maximum annual contribution of $26,700 allowed by law). The NRCC, meanwhile, received $25,000 from just four individual donors last month.

In other national political news, the Democratic pollster/strategist team of Stan Greenberg and James Carville assess the status of the national electorate and find their party to be in a relatively sound state leading up to the 2006 midterm elections.

Even before the announcement of any criminal indictments at the heart of the Bush White House, Republicans and the president himself were already facing their own shattered standing with the country. We send this memo as an important benchmark, as events perhaps worsen for the Republicans. About 60 percent of the country has settled into dark conclusions about the direction of the country, the economy, and the war. On all measures, they have hit their low point. That the Democrats have a 9-point lead in the congressional contest overall – and nearly as great a lead when we ask using the actual names of incumbent members – is actually the least interesting
measure of these times.

Most interesting is the collapse of confidence in the Republicans on some critical attributes related to public service – on being trustworthy and in-touch, having the right priorities and new ideas, on caring for people and putting the public interest first. On many of these key measures of public support, not even 40 percent believe they apply to the Republicans.

The other interesting development, before the new phase in the White House, is the new signs of life among the Democrats. As you know, we have been quite critical of the Democrats for not being more expressive about their beliefs and plans and bold enough in their thinking, but this poll shows some reduced negativity about the Democrats and some greater respect on change, new ideas, putting the public interest first, and being for families. While Democrats remain at 48 percent in this poll – as in virtually every poll since the beginning of the year – they are poised to make gains over the Republicans, who have fallen below 40 percent of the vote.

The emerging images of the party are setting up the 2006 election as a big choice – with the Democrats for change and cleaning house in Washington, electing people who will put the American people first and work for everyone, not just the few.

Click the above link for more data and analysis.

New Jersey

Last year, quirky polling showed President Bush within striking distance of John Kerry in New Jersey. Nevertheless, Kerry eventually went on to win the state by a respectable 53-46 margin. A repeat of this situation appears to be occuring in this year's gubernatorial contest between New Jersey Senator Jon Corzine (D) and businessman Doug Forrester (R), as polling earlier in the month showed the two candidates running neck-and-neck. And just as Kerry pulled ahead last year, Corzine is pulling ahead this year, according to the latest Marist poll.

Democrat Jon Corzine has pulled ahead of his Republican opponent Doug Forrester by 10 points among New Jersey voters likely to vote on Election Day. Earlier this month, Corzine and Forrester were neck and neck. Now, Corzine receives the support of 50% of likely voters compared with 40% for Forrester. One percent mentions another candidate, and 9% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are leaning toward, the margin separating the candidates remains at 10 points with 51% for Jon Corzine and 41% for Doug Forrester. 7% of likely voters are still undecided.

If New Jersey is a foregone conclusion for the Democrats (we're not suggesting it is; we're just raising the hypothetical), does the national attention turn to Virginia, where the gubernatorial contest is actually close, or California, where Arnold Schwarzenegger's governorship is on the line with an unpopular slate of initiatives on the ballot?

Nevada

Democrats were ecstatic last month when news broke that Jack Carter, son of the 39th President, was considering a challenge to conservative Republican Senator John Ensign. But as the Associated Press reports, Carter has his work cut out for him.

[The Mason-Dixon poll] found 59 percent support for Ensign, who is seeking a second term in November 2006, and 25 percent support for Carter, the Democratic son of former President Jimmy Carter. Sixteen percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Carter, an investment company owner who has lived in Las Vegas since 2003, has said he was considering challenging Ensign. His father lost presidential races in Nevada in 1976 and 1980.

Carter called the Review-Journal poll "the baseline from which I will compare my campaign in coming months if I run."

The survey said Carter lacks name recognition. Sixty-one percent did not recognize his name, compared with just 6 percent for Ensign.

Regardless of Carter's low name recognition and even lower standing among the electorate, he's significantly better than no candidate -- the situation the Democrats were stuck with before he jumped in the race -- and he has the potential to make a real race of it.