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Monday, November 14, 2005

Campaign 2006: Democratic Senators

Washington

In 2000, Democrat Maria Cantwell narrowly edged out incumbent Republican Senator Slade Gorton by a little over 2,000 votes, so many Republicans believe Cantwell can be easily defeated. But new polling from Rasmussen Reports seems to raise questions as to just how easy it will be for Republicans to knock her off.

A Rasmussen Reports Election Poll found Cantwell attracting 52% of the vote at this early stage of the campaign. Republican challenger, Mike McGavick, has 37% of the vote. McGavick is the CEO of the Safeco corporation.

Cantwell is viewed favorably by 57% of Washington voters and unfavorably by 37%. Name recognition for McGavick is lower--35% favorable and 34% unfavorable.
In a state where George W. Bush's approval rating stands at 32 percent, it's going to be awfully difficult to defeat an incumbent Democrat with numbers like Cantwell.

New York

During her first Senate run in 2000, Hillary Clinton won comfortably with about 55 percent of the vote. And now, as Marc Humbert reports for the AP, Clinton is looking even more comfortable this time around.

A week after the 2005 elections, a new statewide poll showed Democrats in strong shape headed into the 2006 elections.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer hold huge leads over potential rivals in their respective races for Senate and governor, according to the poll released Monday by Siena College's Research Institute.

[...]

The poll found that Clinton led Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro by 59 percent to 31 percent in a hypothetical matchup. Several other Republicans are eyeing the GOP Senate nomination.

In the governor's race, Spitzer led billionaire businessman B. Thomas Golisano by 58 percent to 26 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld by 64 percent to 16 percent. Republican Gov. George Pataki is not seeking a fourth term.
Given these numbers and the Clinton family's recent trip to Israel -- which should play well with the state's large Jewish minority -- it's hard to envision any Republican (Rudy Giuliani included) slowing Hillary Clinton any time soon. And with momentum from 2006 and tons of cash still on hand, Clinton could prove quite difficult to defeat for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination as well.
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