Montana

For quite some time, the Democrats have been looking at the possibility of knocking off Montana's Republican Senator Conrad Burns. Six years ago, the Dems came extremely close as current Governor Brian Schweitzer held Burns to only 51 percent of the vote. New polling from the state indicates that Burns might be just as vulnerable this time around, as Matt Gouras reports for the AP.

Only 48 percent approve of Burns' job performance, down from his 2002 approval rating of 63 percent. Burns fared better among those people making more money, those who considered themselves more religious, and older Montanans, the pollsters reported.

[...]

Burns' disapproval rating is at 31 percent, while 21 percent remain undecided on his job performance.

[...]

Two Democrats who are vying to challenge Burns in the 2006 election are largely unknown, the pollsters found.

State Auditor John Morrison was not known by 25 percent of the poll respondents, and 44 percent remain undecided about him. While 27 percent had a positive opinion about him, only 4 percent had a negative opinion.

State Senate President Jon Tester, D-Big Sandy, was not known by 39 percent of the respondents, and 38 percent remain undecided about him. Just 17 percent said they had a positive opinion of Tester, while 6 percent had a negative opinion.

Montana's lone Congressman, Denny Rehberg, faces a similarly difficult challenge in 2006, and his approval rating is not much better at 49 percent.

Pennsylvania

As Dave Davies reports for the Philadelphia Daily News, Pennsylvania's Republican Senator Rick Santorum is also embroiled in quite the reelection campaign.

The [Daily News/CN8 Keystone] poll shows Republican Santorum's fortunes also sinking. His job-approval ratings are at a six-year low, and the poll shows him trailing Democratic opponent Bob Casey by 16 points, 51 to 35 percent.

"You may see Santorum try to make Casey the issue, and convince voters he's the least objectionable candidate," Madonna said. "So it's likely Santorum will go negative, and harshly negative."

The poll found Casey leading his announced opponent, Chuck Pennacchio, in the Democratic senatorial primary, 67 to 5 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

As difficult of a position as Santorum is in currently, even he won't allow President Bush to campaign for him. In fact, as Thomas Fitzgerald reports for The Philadelphia Enquirer, Santorum won't even attend the President's event in Pennsylvania this week.

National

Bob Novak:

The victory of Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican Jerry Kilgore was the only contest in scattered off-year elections that was carefully monitored on Capitol Hill. For a liberal Virginian to win a Southern red state signaled that cherished Republican majorities in both House and Senate, plus all the perquisites they entail, could be lost in 2006. Eyeing the Democratic landslide in suburban northern Virginia just over the Potomac from Washington that gave Lt. Gov. Kaine the governorship, Republicans in Congress envision their own doom.

The antidote to avoid that fate is to keep as far away from President Bush as possible, a lesson underlined by the president's failed election rescue mission for former Virginia state Attorney General Kilgore. The consequences may be profound. As his approval rating dipped, Bush increasingly has been treated in Congress as a lame duck. Tuesday's Virginia outcome increases the propensity of Republican senators and House members not only to avoid their president on the campaign trail but also to ignore his legislative proposals.

[...]

The political message read on Capitol Hill came strictly from the Virginia governor's race. How to explain that Democratic victory in a red state where both U.S. senators, eight out of 11 House members and comfortable margins in both houses of the legislature are Republican, and a Republican won for lieutenant governor Tuesday?

They blame Kilgore's defeat on Bush's popularity dipping below 50 percent in Virginia. After avoiding the president on Bush's recent visit to Norfolk, a desperate Kilgore asked for eleventh-hour help. The Monday night appearance in Richmond by a dispirited and exhausted Bush, returning from his difficult Latin America trip, was a dud.

To tell the truth, Novak isn't so off base with his reading of yesterday's election. (It's a bit surprising and weird for me to say that I agree with Bob Novak. So it goes sometimes...)