Florida

Yesterday we noted recent polling from Quinnipiac University showing the leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Jim Davis, ahead of the two leading Republican candidates for governor in head-to-head matchups. In response to these numbers, Hotline on Call's Marc Ambinder writes, "the Q-poll has a shaky track record in FL, but the numbers are a confidence booster, and Republicans aren't disputing them." Now, a second poll -- from Rasmussen Reports -- finds almost exactly the same results.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a 60% Job Approval Rating but term limits prevent him from seeking another term. The race to be Florida's next Governor is a toss-up at this time.

Democrat Jim Davis is tied with Republican Tom Gallagher in a hypothetical match-up for Election 2006. Both Davis and Gallagher earn 40% of the vote.

When Davis is matched against Charley Crist, he leads the Republican 41% to 38%. In January, Rasmussen Reports will begin polling on the Republican Primary between Crist and Gallagher.

At the beginning of the year, this was a race that few political analysts expected to be competitive. Although Florida is still a battleground state on the Presidential level, it currently has only one statewide elected Democrat (Senator Bill Nelson). So it looks like the Democrats shouldn't write off Florida quite yet -- because if ever the party needed a big win in the South, now is that time.

Indiana

In 2004, Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) was one of only a handful of House members to be defeated in a reelection bid. Hill, who is running to reclaim his seat in next year's election against the man who beat him last year, is briefly profiled today by the Associated Press.

Former Rep. Baron Hill said he will run to reclaim his seat after narrowly losing last year to Republican Mike Sodrel.

The Democrat was the first incumbent in Indiana to lose a congressional race in a decade. Sodrel, who owned and operated trucking companies, won the 9th District by fewer than 1,500 votes and plans to run for a second term.

[...]

Hill, 51, served three terms in Congress. Sodrel had also attempted to defeat him in a close race in 2002, losing by only 5 percent of the vote.

If Sodrel could only defeat Hill by 1,500 votes when George W. Bush carried the district with 59 percent of the vote, how will he do next year when a) he doesn't have the up-ticket help, and b) the President is increasingly unpopular, even in "red" states like Indiana?